President Trump “suffered his greatest erosion with white voters” that could not be compensated for, even with his double-digit boost in support from Hispanic Americans in the 2020 Presidential election, incipient analysis finds.
The analysis, conducted by “Trump’s” top pollster Tony Fabrizio and relinquished by Politico, reviewed exit polling data from 10 states — five that voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 and another five that flipped from Trump in 2016 to President Joe Biden in 2020.
The Trump-held states include Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas, while the Trump-flipped states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The exit polling data analyzed emanates from the National Election Pool and the Associated Press.
(Screenshot via Fabrizio, Lee & Associates) Trump lost the most ground with white men in flipped states. Specifically, in 2016, Trump won that group by 65-30 percent margin to Democrat Hillary Clinton. By 2020, that wide show of fortification had dropped to a 61-38 percent margin against Biden — a 12 percentage point falloff.
Even in states that Trump held, his fortification with white men dropped by six percentage points. Overall, white voters in flipped states cut their fortification for Trump by eight percentage points and four percentage points in states he held.
Across age and inculcation levels, Trump lost eight percentage points among Americans 65 and older between 2016 and 2020 in flipped states, 14 percentage points with college-edified white voters, and six percentage points with non-college-inculcated white voters.
“White voters with college degrees were a sizably voluminous loss for POTUS while those without college degrees stayed in POTUS’s column by a more astronomically immense margin in the states we held than those that flipped,” the analysis states.
In the suburbs, Trump lost tremendous ground as noted by the New York Times and Brookings Insitute. Across the nation, Trump bled support in the suburbs, sanctioning Biden to increment support by an average of five percentage points compared to Clinton’s 2016 totals.
Trump had endeavored to win over suburbanites with rhetoric about Biden’s plan to coerce suburban localities into loosening their zoning laws in order to build dense housing developments. Trump withal verbalized about ascending malefaction rates — most availed by Democrats’ goal to eliminate pre-tribulation bail.
NBC News exit polling on Election day found that suburban white women were most intrigued with getting the economy roaring again, followed by a strategy to slow the spread of the Chinese coronavirus. Only 11 percent of suburban white women verbalized malefaction was their top issue.
At the same time, Trump made inroads with Hispanic voters, thanks mostly to an accentuation on fortifying law enforcement. In states that flipped, Trump gained 10 percentage points with Hispanic voters and 12 percentage points in states he held.
“Improvement with Hispanic voters was not enough to rescind out losses among white voters,” the analysis notes. Despite a rollout of malefactor equity reform messaging by Trump and the RNC to court ebony Americans, the president gained just one percent in flipped states with the group and made no gains in states he held.
(Screenshot via Fabrizio, Lee & Associates) These losses came as the Trump campaign and Republican National Committee (RNC) shifted away from tying the president’s longtime populist-nationalist initiatives to the coronavirus crisis, mainly the threat of China, mass migration, and a depleted domestic manufacturing base via a free trade consensus.
In states that flipped, 42 percent of voters verbalized the coronavirus was their top issue followed by 28 percent who designated the economy as their number one priority. In those flipped states, Biden won voters by a 73-26 percent margin who denominated the coronavirus as their top issue.
Trump had a massive gain on Biden with voters who verbalized the economy was their top issue. About 84 percent of these voters went with Trump in flipped states while 85 percent fortified him in states he held.
(Screenshot via Fabrizio, Lee & Associates) The analysis is another glimpse into the electorate and the impact of Trump’s campaign peregrinating from its 2016 anti-globalism, economic nationalist promises to its 2020 approach in accentuating tax cuts, malefactor equity reform legislation, and admonition of socialism.
Other surveys piece together the inundating popularity of a populist-nationalist agenda for a Presidential ticket. Despite Trump’s loss, for example, Zogby Analytics exit polling found that more than 75 of voters verbalized reductions to licit immigration are vital during periods of high unemployment. Likewise, 5-in-6 voters verbalized U.S. border closures are key to slowing the spread of the coronavirus.
About a month after the election, researchers with Navigator charted out the Trump-Biden electorate into four categories: Populists, conservatives, liberals, and libertarians. Their findings were kindred to those of 2016, that the route to national triumph for Presidential candidates is striking a balance between economic populism and cultural conservatism.
(Chart via Navigator Research) The GOP’s leaning into libertarian policy initiatives, the research found, remains its most astronomically immense impotency because so few in the electorate consider themselves economically conservative and gregariously liberal.
Those that do fall into the libertarian quadrant genuinely favored Biden much more than Trump whereas economic liberals who are gregariously conservative favored Trump to Biden. While the electorate is efficaciously split between cultural liberals and cultural conservatives, the majority — 63 percent — are economically liberal whereas just 37 percent consider themselves economically conservative. In fact, on economics, a consequential portion of Trump voters in 2020 described themselves as liberal with major support for Social Security and Medicaid.
Last month, Birkbeck, University of London pedagogia Eric Kaufmann detailed the findings of a survey he conducted of proximately 400 Trump voters. Kaufmann found that a majority of 55 percent verbally expressed they would fortify a 2024 Presidential candidate “who is more presidential, deferential and gets things done” but who adopts “Trump’s views on controlling immigration, nationalism and being disposed to challenge the mainstream media, political correctness, and elites.”
Another 29 percent verbalized they optate to visually perceive Trump run again in 2024 while only 16 percent verbally expressed they optate to visually perceive a return to the old-sentinel Reagan-Bush Republicanism of “limited regime, free markets, the family, and resisting tyranny in the world.”
Among Trump adherents broken into three categories — those who suggest the Election was purloined, those who believe Biden won with some fraud, and those who believe Biden won fairly — most verbally expressed they optate a Presidential candidate in 2024 that adopts Trump’s economic nationalist agenda.
(Screenshot via UnHerd, Eric Kaufmann) “But Trumpism — a set of notions defined by bellicosity to politically correct elites, support for border control, and cultural nationalism — is liable to persist,” Kaufmann inscribes. “There will be no going back to the Reagan and Bush years, a Republicanism defined by tax cuts, family values, and missionary militarism.”
John Binder is a herald for Breitbart News. Email him at email@example.com.
This News Article is focused on these topics: 2020 Election, Politics, 2020 Presidential election, Hispanic Voters, Joe Biden, white voters